Breaking Down the 2021-2022 Admissions Season

The 2021-2022 college admissions season achieved the unthinkable: it was somehow crazier than last year. If you’ve been part of the Simply Admissions community for a while, you may have seen our 2020-2021 admissions season M&M. While many of the reasoning and warnings mentioned in that breakdown remain true today, there are new trends coming to light as well. 

Safeties Safe No More 

This year, colleges that students had previously considered safeties or targets (such as Florida State University, Northeastern University, and College of Charleston) released very surprising admission decisions. This is presumably directly connected to students applying to more colleges but is nonetheless still shocking. Northeastern, which saw about a 20% increase in applications, jumped from an 18% acceptance rate to a 6.7% acceptance rate in one year.1 Five University of California campuses saw over 100,000 applications this year.2 

When families hear this, they usually then ask “does that mean my student should be applying to more colleges?” or “what is actually a safety now?” These are very understandable questions but it’s important to remember that while the media loves reporting on the Northeasterns and Auburns of the world, they are outliers. There are thousands of fantastic colleges out there that have not seen this dramatic fluctuation in acceptance rates and can still be considered “true safeties.” 

I am continuing to firmly stand by my suggestion that most students should apply to 8 to 11 colleges. That does come with a couple of caveats, however; the list must be balanced and the colleges must be a true fit for them. This past year, Simply Admission students have proven that standing by that recommendation was the right choice. They were accepted to, on average, 80% of the colleges they applied to. Our students had plenty of colleges to ultimately choose from without spending unnecessary hours applying to too many colleges. 

Auburn Case Study 

Let’s dive deeper into Auburn University, which saw a 68.5% increase in applications and an overall admit rate that was approximately 45% lower than last year.3 Those are crazy numbers! That being said, if you start looking at specific moves Auburn has made recently it becomes less surprising. 

Two years ago, Auburn began accepting the Common Application (previously they only accepted their own institutional application). When colleges join the Common App, they typically see a bump in applications since it becomes easier for students to apply. Auburn did see about 10,000 more applications for the Fall of 2021.4 However, at that time, they were still requiring four supplemental essays (on top of the longer Common App essay). It’s a safe assumption that the essays deterred some potential applications. 

This year, Auburn did not require any essays. I personally believe that this was a strategic decision on their part; they wanted to continue driving up the number of applications and therefore made it easier than ever for students to apply. 

Additionally, Auburn jumped on the test optional train but less than 7% of test optional applicants were actually admitted.5 Auburn also moved away from a holistic admissions process this year; they now only look at a student’s academic record and test scores. Extracurricular activities, essays, and letters of recommendation are no longer considered in their evaluation process. These policies likely contributed to both the increase in applicants and the lower acceptance rate.

When I saw these changes occur, I had a feeling that it indicated a tough year ahead. This is not to say that I knew it was going to be so extreme (I don’t think even Auburn expected it!) but I did tweak a few of my student’s admission probabilities to be a bit more conservative. While it’s easier for me to see these changes since I do this year after year, families can still dive deep on their own. When you’re visiting colleges, ask how many students applied without test scores and how many of those students they admitted (then compare that to the overall acceptance rate). As students research colleges, make sure they understand what colleges are focusing on during their evaluations and consider if it will allow them to shine. This helps ensure that students are shaping their college lists appropriately.

Enrollment Management Chaos 

The increase in the number of applications is not the only enrollment management issue colleges are dealing with currently. Many colleges overenrolled last year’s incoming class because the historical models they use to shape their policies couldn’t account for COVID’s impact. This meant there were fewer spots to begin with this year. This is likely one of the reasons for so many deferrals and longer waitlists this year: colleges were relying heavily on these enrollment management techniques in an effort to meet their goals. I expect this enrollment management frenzy to still be around next year, which is why it’s important to reinforce to students that deferrals and waitlists are now simply part of the process. They are a continuation of the admissions roller coaster and not necessarily the end of the line. 

This is another area where families can arm themselves with more data through a deep dive. Colleges publish Common Data Sets on their websites annually. The CDS provides a wealth of information including how many students were offered a spot on the waitlist, how many students accepted a place on the waitlist, and how many students were admitted off of the waitlist. This historical data provides a window into the college’s individual policies and trends, allowing students to set accurate expectations.

How to Stand Out Among 100,000 Applications  

I would say that the most important takeaway from this admissions season is that it’s becoming more important than ever to “play the game.” That means focusing on demonstrating interest (if the college tracks DI), being able to communicate why the student is a genuine fit for the college, and understanding the current admissions landscape. 

If you’re unsure what demonstrated interest means, I wrote a blog post in 2018 that explains the concept a bit more. Out of the thousands of applications colleges receive, they could often fill their incoming class multiple times over with amazing students. That’s why DI is becoming a bigger part of the equation at many colleges: they not only want to admit students with strong applications, they want to admit students with strong applications that actually will attend. Tracking demonstrated interest allows them to find the students that meet both criteria. 

When a student is deferred (or sometimes even waitlisted), DI reaches its peak level of importance. Deferred students should be focused on writing letters of continued interest that mention they’ll attend if admitted (if that is an accurate statement). 

Supplemental essays are becoming another vital part of the application at many colleges. Prompts like “Why do you want to study your major specifically at Georgia Tech?” should be answered thoughtfully. Georgia Tech is a school that doesn’t track demonstrated interest in a traditional sense but is still looking for students to show through their essays that they’ve done their research. These essays are where students can show that they have done that deep dive and explain why they will be a fit at each school. The goal is for the reader to know how the student will be able to contribute to the community by the time they finish reading the essay. 

Just like last year, I want to end the breakdown by saying please don’t stress. There are more than enough wonderful colleges eagerly waiting to admit your student!